Fed’s Waller says US Treasury safety premium has vanished, raising neutral rate estimate

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the safety premium on US Treasuries is gone, prompting him to raise his neutral rate estimate.

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As of 2026-09-04 04:58 UTC. Market figures are as the cited sources reported them at that time and may have moved since. This is news, not investment advice.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said at a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker event that the safety premium for U.S. Treasury debt has largely disappeared, which has led him to raise his neutral rate estimate. ^[1] Waller attributed rising Treasury yields to concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and to competition for capital from artificial intelligence infrastructure investment. ^[2] Waller said at the same event that for the United States to grow its way out of its $40 trillion debt load, structural deficits would need to be brought closer to zero percent of GDP, from about 6% in the current fiscal year. ^[3] Waller said that if upcoming data confirms inflation is cooling, he is inclined to favor keeping interest rates steady at the U.S. central bank's next policy meeting. ^[4] Christopher Waller raised his estimate for the neutral rate of interest, indicating that higher policy rates are required for any given rate of inflation. ^[5]

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Waller attributed rising Treasury yields to concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and to competition for capital from artificial intelligence infrastructure investment. · San Juan Daily Star

Waller said at the same event that for the United States to grow its way out of its $40 trillion debt load, structural deficits would need to be brought closer to zero percent of GDP, from about 6% in the current fiscal year. · San Juan Daily Star

Waller said that if upcoming data confirms inflation is cooling, he is inclined to favor keeping interest rates steady at the U.S. central bank's next policy meeting. · San Juan Daily Star

Christopher Waller raised his estimate for the neutral rate of interest, indicating that higher policy rates are required for any given rate of inflation. · The Business Times

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