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    "headline": "Deloitte Warns USMCA Collapse Would Severely Hurt Canadian Economy",
    "dek": "A Deloitte report estimates ending the USMCA would cut Canada's GDP by 1.6% over the next decade.",
    "prose": "The report projects that if the USMCA dissolves, Canada's real GDP would fall by 1.6% or $402 billion over the next decade relative to the status quo baseline. [^1]\n\nDeloitte Canada published a report titled 'Tariffs: A Rough Road Leads to New Destinations' on Thursday analyzing the economic impact of a potential US exit from the ACEUM trade agreement. [^2]\n\nIn the most pessimistic scenario involving the dissolution of the ACEUM, Canada's real GDP would fall by 1.6%, equivalent to 40.2 billion Canadian dollars, over the next decade. [^3]\n\nIn the worst-case scenario, the real GDP of the motor vehicles and parts sector would see a 28% plunge compared to the baseline, while electronics, machinery, and equipment would lose 21%. [^4]\n\nMatthew Stewart and co-authors Danielle Bochove and Trevin Stratton wrote that the impact of a USMCA end would be severe but not cataclysmic for the overall economy, though potentially cataclysmic for specific sectors. [^5]\n\nThe authors estimate that annual employment would shrink by an average of 163,000 jobs, which would drag down wages and consumer spending. [^6]\n\nIn the optimistic scenario where Canada maintains existing trade agreements and diversifies exports, the real GDP would increase by 0.6%, or 14.1 billion Canadian dollars, over the next decade. [^7]",
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