The report projects that if the USMCA dissolves, Canada's real GDP would fall by 1.6% or $402 billion over the next decade relative to the status quo baseline. ^[1] Deloitte Canada published a report titled 'Tariffs: A Rough Road Leads to New Destinations' on Thursday analyzing the economic impact of a potential US exit from the ACEUM trade agreement. ^[2] In the most pessimistic scenario involving the dissolution of the ACEUM, Canada's real GDP would fall by 1.6%, equivalent to 40.2 billion Canadian dollars, over the next decade. ^[3] In the worst-case scenario, the real GDP of the motor vehicles and parts sector would see a 28% plunge compared to the baseline, while electronics, machinery, and equipment would lose 21%. ^[4] Matthew Stewart and co-authors Danielle Bochove and Trevin Stratton wrote that the impact of a USMCA end would be severe but not cataclysmic for the overall economy, though potentially cataclysmic for specific sectors. ^[5] The authors estimate that annual employment would shrink by an average of 163,000 jobs, which would drag down wages and consumer spending. ^[6] In the optimistic scenario where Canada maintains existing trade agreements and diversifies exports, the real GDP would increase by 0.6%, or 14.1 billion Canadian dollars, over the next decade. ^[7]